Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     77.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  21.0  19.7  18.9  20.4  21.4  14.1  13.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  86.0  86.0  84.0  81.0  72.0  61.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   2.0  50.0   5.0   8.0  14.0  38.0  37.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.2  21.0  19.7  18.9  20.4  21.4  14.1  13.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%