Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60     78.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  19.9  18.4  20.8  21.8  13.7  13.0  17.7  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  86.0  83.0  81.0  74.0  65.0  51.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  29.0  -1.0  11.0  30.0  39.0  37.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.6  19.9  18.4  20.8  21.8  13.7  13.0  17.7  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%