Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     78.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  20.2  19.8  20.9  14.0  11.8  13.6   9.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  66.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0 -16.0  24.0  25.0  56.0  45.0  -1.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.4  20.2  19.8  20.9  14.0  11.8  13.6   9.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%