Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  19.7  22.4  10.5   8.3  11.7   9.9  11.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  79.0  75.0  67.0  56.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  14.0  28.0  42.0  51.0  18.0  37.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.5  19.7  22.4  10.5   8.3  11.7   9.9  11.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%