Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  10.0   9.1  11.5   9.4  13.6  21.3  24.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  76.0  65.0  59.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  47.0  66.0   7.0  17.0  68.0  51.0  23.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.7  10.0   9.1  11.5   9.4  13.6  21.3  24.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        4.6%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.3%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.3%        1.7%       13.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%