Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     78.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  10.3  11.7  11.7  14.1  20.1  23.1  21.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  89.0  78.0  61.0  66.0  65.0  51.0  40.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  41.0   4.0  27.0  68.0  77.0  38.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.6  10.3  11.7  11.7  14.1  20.1  23.1  21.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%        8.2%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.7%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.7%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       26.5%        2.5%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        0.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        2.2%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%