Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  12.9  12.3  16.0  22.1  23.8  21.3  24.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  75.0  61.0  64.0  61.0  41.0  35.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0   9.0  44.0  57.0  69.0  26.0  41.0  42.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  43.0  42.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.8  12.9  12.3  16.0  22.1  23.8  21.3  24.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        5.9%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       17.2%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       11.1%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       11.1%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        6.7%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       31.6%        4.6%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        1.5%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        3.2%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%