Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     78.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1   9.9  16.3  21.9  23.4  18.6  21.6  22.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  50.0  58.0  53.0  39.0  29.0  25.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  42.0  64.0  71.0  37.0  57.0  31.0  30.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.1   9.9  16.3  21.9  23.4  18.6  21.6  22.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        9.6%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.5%       21.6%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%       16.1%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       16.1%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        8.7%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h       32.6%        6.9%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        2.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        3.8%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%