Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  17.1  26.7  28.0  22.2  22.4  21.8  23.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  58.0  55.0  36.0  30.0  23.0  17.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  60.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  64.0  71.0  34.0  50.0  45.0  15.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  45.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  17.1  26.7  28.0  22.2  22.4  21.8  23.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        6.3%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       10.5%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%        5.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%        5.5%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        3.3%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h       27.1%        3.3%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        1.0%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        1.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%