Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50     79.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  23.0  27.0  21.1  20.0  20.4  22.8  26.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  44.0  32.0  25.0  22.0  19.0  14.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  72.0  26.0  48.0  64.0  35.0  27.0  61.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.5  23.0  27.0  21.1  20.0  20.4  22.8  26.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        6.1%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       14.1%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%        9.4%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%        9.4%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        4.8%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h       18.9%        4.2%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        1.3%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        2.3%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%