Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  29.6  23.8  21.9  22.8  21.5  27.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  28.0  26.0  22.0  18.0  15.0   6.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  69.6  50.5  41.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  41.0  42.0  60.0  31.0  32.0  58.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  40.0  44.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.1  29.6  23.8  21.9  22.8  21.5  27.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.8%        4.8%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       14.3%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       10.2%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       10.2%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        4.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%        4.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%