Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00     79.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  23.6  24.2  24.0  23.9  27.6  42.1  53.1  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  21.0  18.0  16.0  13.0   6.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  57.9  43.5  32.7  29.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  42.0  54.0   7.0  35.0  81.0 101.0  96.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  38.0  40.0  39.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.2  23.6  24.2  24.0  23.9  27.6  42.1  53.1  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        7.0%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       16.0%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       11.9%       12.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.9%       11.9%       12.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        4.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%        4.5%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%