Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.40     79.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.1  25.9  25.7  31.1  43.7  52.9  52.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  20.0  16.0  13.0   6.0  20.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  55.1  38.5  29.4  29.4  19.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  58.0   0.0  28.0  89.0 109.0  90.0 119.0  N  N  U  U  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  44.0  45.0  50.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.3  24.1  25.9  25.7  31.1  43.7  52.9  52.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.9%        8.1%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       12.6%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%        8.6%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%        8.6%       11.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        3.4%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.7%        2.7%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%