Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     79.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  23.6  26.6  31.9  42.2  49.5  48.1  55.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  14.0   6.0   4.0  15.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  55.1  36.6  29.4  26.0  26.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  14.0  19.0  84.0 114.0  98.0 113.0 126.0  N  U  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  43.0  46.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.1  23.6  26.6  31.9  42.2  49.5  48.1  55.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        3.1%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        3.7%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%