Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70     78.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  26.5  30.7  38.7  48.1  48.1  57.6  67.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0   8.0   3.0   6.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  62.3  43.5  36.2  31.0  32.7  -2.3 -24.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  21.0  77.0 114.0 102.0 110.0 124.0 123.0  U  U  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  40.0  43.0  42.0  46.0  50.0  50.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  26.5  30.7  38.7  48.1  48.1  57.6  67.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%