Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40     77.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  27.9  38.4  46.1  49.8  57.4  71.0  77.6  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0  13.0  12.0   0.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  50.5  41.2  39.4  36.0   7.0 -22.2 -33.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  85.0 113.0 116.0 112.0 158.0 129.0 135.0  U  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.5  27.9  38.4  46.1  49.8  57.4  71.0  77.6  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%