Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10     76.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  36.6  47.6  51.5  57.7  68.5  76.6  81.2  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  23.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.5  51.2  51.2  46.0  11.7 -14.9 -24.1 -21.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 101.0 114.0 134.0 140.0 114.0 155.0 128.0  N  F  F VF VF  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  43.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  50.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  36.6  47.6  51.5  57.7  68.5  76.6  81.2  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%