Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052019 190906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.10     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  45.3  52.7  59.9  70.4  77.0  80.5  68.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  51.2  32.2   5.0 -20.8 -25.0 -21.9 -30.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 134.0 127.0 147.0 113.0 174.0 102.0  86.0  F VF  F VF  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  45.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  50.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.2  45.3  52.7  59.9  70.4  77.0  80.5  68.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%