Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70     72.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  21.9  17.3  14.6  18.0  21.6  21.8  14.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  21.0  21.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 132.0 129.6 127.3 125.1 120.7 120.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0 -28.0   4.0  11.0   2.0  36.0  23.0  42.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.4  21.9  17.3  14.6  18.0  21.6  21.8  14.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%       11.2%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.6%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       13.5%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        5.6%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        2.2%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        4.4%        4.9%