Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.40     72.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  18.0  15.2  14.6  18.3  18.9  15.4  18.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  22.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 129.6 125.1 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0  10.0  27.0  11.0  36.0   3.0  66.0  39.0 VU  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  18.0  15.2  14.6  18.3  18.9  15.4  18.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.7%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       11.8%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        6.0%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.2%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        1.6%        1.9%