Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     71.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.2  23.5  23.5  19.1  18.5  16.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  19.0  32.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 134.3 129.6 125.1 120.7 120.7 132.0 116.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  14.0  14.0   7.0  32.0  39.0  10.0  31.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.3  20.2  23.5  23.5  19.1  18.5  16.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        7.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        9.6%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        3.6%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.4%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%