Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     71.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.6  22.4  17.7  15.7  18.1  29.1  38.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  18.0  19.0  27.0  30.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 129.6 125.1 122.9 125.1 127.3 106.6  67.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  14.0  -7.0  38.0  29.0  27.0  53.0  65.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  49.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.2  22.6  22.4  17.7  15.7  18.1  29.1  38.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       10.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.7%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%