Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     72.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.3  16.6  16.5  20.8  30.3  41.9  47.9  N  N  F  F  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  19.0  20.0  39.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 122.3 117.9 117.9 120.1  84.6  42.6  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  -4.0  44.0  21.0  43.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.2  23.3  16.6  16.5  20.8  30.3  41.9  47.9  N  N  F  F  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       12.8%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        4.4%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.9%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       11.4%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.3%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%