Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.10     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.3  19.3  32.1  44.9  53.3  52.5  59.9  F  F  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  19.0  40.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 117.9 120.1  99.8  45.0  15.6  17.1  22.7  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  36.0  56.0  45.0  53.0  72.0  34.0  44.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  54.0  49.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.1  14.3  19.3  32.1  44.9  53.3  52.5  59.9  F  F  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%