Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.00     72.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  23.0  34.3  47.3  55.4  55.3  64.5  73.5  F  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  57.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7  92.7  44.1  18.1  22.3  22.6  16.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  37.0  48.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  55.0  58.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.4  23.0  34.3  47.3  55.4  55.3  64.5  73.5  F  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%