Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062019 190829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     72.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  31.2  44.7  54.1  50.7  57.4  67.7  65.3  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 110.5  60.7  24.6  20.8  28.9  17.7  12.1  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  57.0  52.0  61.0  17.0  48.0  63.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  46.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.7  31.2  44.7  54.1  50.7  57.4  67.7  65.3  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%