Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     94.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.2  18.1  19.0  21.4  18.4  13.7  17.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  77.0  79.0  72.0  49.0  29.0  20.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  39.0  37.0   9.0  -2.0  32.0  28.0   3.0 VU  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.8  26.2  18.1  19.0  21.4  18.4  13.7  17.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       19.2%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        5.9%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       23.3%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        8.5%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%       15.1%       14.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.1%        5.1%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.0%       13.3%       13.2%