Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  20.9  19.9  24.1  20.5  12.2  14.5  15.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  76.0  57.0  35.0  22.0  16.0  10.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  43.0   8.0  13.0  31.0  37.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.1  20.9  19.9  24.1  20.5  12.2  14.5  15.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       24.3%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        9.5%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        9.5%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       30.6%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       13.5%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%       17.8%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        6.3%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%       11.2%        8.6%