Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     96.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  24.0  23.0  20.5  13.6  17.0  17.4  17.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  55.0  34.0  23.0  16.0  14.0   9.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  15.0  16.0  34.0  28.0  -6.0   9.0  38.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  24.0  23.0  20.5  13.6  17.0  17.4  17.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%        8.9%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       34.8%       28.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.5%       17.6%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h       14.9%       17.6%       16.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%        9.7%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       18.2%       36.7%       27.5%
 55kt / 36h       12.7%       18.6%       15.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       17.8%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        6.5%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        4.9%        3.1%