Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00     96.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.0  21.2  16.4  17.5  17.6  17.6  17.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  39.0  24.0  19.0  16.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  25.0  16.0  48.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.6  25.0  21.2  16.4  17.5  17.6  17.6  17.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%        6.1%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       30.8%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       14.1%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       14.1%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%        7.4%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.8%       29.5%       21.7%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%       12.1%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       15.0%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        4.3%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        8.0%        5.5%