Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00     97.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  23.8  15.9  18.1  18.1  18.1  18.1  18.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  16.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  36.0  46.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  23.8  15.9  18.1  18.1  18.1  18.1  18.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       11.8%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.1%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.1%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       10.2%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        8.1%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%