Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL072019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     98.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  15.8  15.2  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0   5.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  36.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.4  15.8  15.2  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        5.4%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        4.1%        4.1%