Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80     32.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  20.7  18.2  20.5  26.9  27.8  29.2  34.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  91.1  92.7  92.7  94.3  97.7  99.4 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  27.0  26.0  32.0  36.0  32.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  47.0  45.0  42.0  41.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.1  20.7  18.2  20.5  26.9  27.8  29.2  34.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%