Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     33.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.4  28.7  28.3  29.5  33.8  35.6  36.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  89.3  91.0  92.7  96.2  98.0 101.6 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  30.0  25.0   1.0  -2.0   8.0  15.0  16.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  47.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.3  23.4  28.7  28.3  29.5  33.8  35.6  36.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%