Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.2  26.8  28.5  34.4  35.9  35.7  37.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  84.3  87.7  89.4  93.0  96.6 100.5 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  27.0   2.0   1.0  22.0  19.0   5.0  -7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.8  29.2  26.8  28.5  34.4  35.9  35.7  37.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%