Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     33.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  27.1  30.5  36.1  38.4  38.5  40.1  40.6  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  81.0  84.4  88.0  91.6  95.5  99.4 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0   7.0  13.0  32.0   7.0  -6.0 -11.0  22.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  43.0  41.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  30.8  27.1  30.5  36.1  38.4  38.5  40.1  40.6  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%