Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     34.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  37.3  39.3  39.9  43.1  43.4  35.5  28.4  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   9.0  12.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  86.2  89.8  93.5  99.4 107.9 117.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  23.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   8.0 -24.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.1  37.3  39.3  39.9  43.1  43.4  35.5  28.4  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%