Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     35.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  41.5  41.3  43.3  45.3  40.5  29.9  21.9  U VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   5.0  10.0  10.0  13.0  15.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0  96.6 100.5 106.5 115.1 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0   3.0   0.0 -16.0  17.0 -25.0 -25.0 -26.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.6  41.5  41.3  43.3  45.3  40.5  29.9  21.9  U VU VU VU VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%