Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     36.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  43.7  44.2  33.6  24.6  13.4   9.7   9.1 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  17.0  21.0  15.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 113.6 124.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  13.0 -11.0 -11.0 -13.0 -36.0 -45.0 -58.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.9  43.7  44.2  33.6  24.6  13.4   9.7   9.1 VU VU VU  U  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%