Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90     37.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.2  41.9  31.7  20.8  11.4   9.1  11.1  12.7 VU VU  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  15.0  13.0  19.0  19.0  14.0  11.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   0.0 -28.0 -30.0 -40.0 -35.0 -34.0  -5.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  44.0  45.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.2  41.9  31.7  20.8  11.4   9.1  11.1  12.7 VU VU  U  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%