Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082019 190906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     38.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  29.7  18.3  10.2  11.3  17.8  15.2  12.2 VU  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  10.0  18.0  21.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -25.0 -27.0 -26.0 -53.0 -36.0 -23.0   4.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  40.9  29.7  18.3  10.2  11.3  17.8  15.2  12.2 VU  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        6.7%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        8.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        4.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        4.6%        3.9%