Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70     74.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  13.8  13.7  21.8  23.7  10.4  14.0  19.3  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  83.0  82.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   1.0   4.0  34.0   8.0   7.0  15.0  33.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  13.8  13.7  21.8  23.7  10.4  14.0  19.3  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       22.0%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        8.1%        5.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.3%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       33.3%       20.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       13.9%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.5%       21.8%       23.2%
 70kt / 48h       19.3%       10.2%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h       46.2%       32.6%       39.4%