Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  16.0  24.0  26.2  13.5  14.2  19.9  20.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  85.0  73.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  57.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   8.0  29.0  39.0  11.0  13.0  30.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.2  16.0  24.0  26.2  13.5  14.2  19.9  20.5  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.2%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       15.8%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       27.5%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        9.7%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       15.7%       17.9%
 70kt / 48h       15.4%        6.8%       11.1%
 65kt / 72h       38.6%       20.5%       29.6%