Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00     75.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  24.8  23.3  14.0  15.0  17.9  19.4  14.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  63.0  53.0  48.0  49.0  67.0  60.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  19.0  19.0  13.0  36.0  46.0  33.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  50.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.2  24.8  23.3  14.0  15.0  17.9  19.4  14.3  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       17.5%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       28.2%       17.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       10.7%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       19.3%       18.0%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h       13.3%        8.0%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h       33.3%       20.2%       26.7%