Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  23.3  13.2  13.1  16.9  18.0  11.7  13.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  59.0  46.0  35.0  37.0  54.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  28.0  32.0  50.0  55.0  29.0  20.0  23.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.9  23.3  13.2  13.1  16.9  18.0  11.7  13.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       18.0%       11.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        5.6%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       28.1%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%       11.3%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       21.0%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h       15.0%        9.8%       12.4%
 65kt / 72h       39.2%       25.2%       32.2%