Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  10.1  12.5  16.8  18.5  14.2  14.6  21.8  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  45.0  35.0  38.0  44.0  47.0  40.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 135.0 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  20.0  50.0  34.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  51.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  53.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.7  10.1  12.5  16.8  18.5  14.2  14.6  21.8  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.1%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       27.0%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       10.3%        7.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       10.3%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       38.3%       24.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.8%       18.6%       13.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       21.6%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h       12.7%       10.5%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       23.9%       19.4%       21.7%