Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     75.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  11.6  17.2  17.2  13.4  13.0  19.1  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  42.0  34.0  38.0  43.0  46.0  42.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  53.0  37.0   9.0   9.0  43.0  65.0  38.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.6  11.6  17.2  17.2  13.4  13.0  19.1  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        6.2%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       32.8%       23.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       14.2%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       13.3%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        6.4%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h       18.3%       45.3%       31.8%
 55kt / 36h       14.3%       22.9%       18.6%
 55kt / 48h       20.7%       22.1%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h       14.1%       10.7%       12.4%
 65kt / 72h       21.3%       16.1%       18.7%