Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     76.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  15.8  17.8  15.0  11.2  16.9  21.9  22.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  31.0  35.0  44.0  48.0  48.0  39.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  36.0  23.0  25.0  42.0  62.0  48.0  41.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.5  15.8  17.8  15.0  11.2  16.9  21.9  22.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.7%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       27.9%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       11.8%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       11.2%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.9%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       37.1%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       16.6%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       20.0%       18.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.4%        7.8%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       17.6%       11.0%       14.3%