Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10     77.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  18.6  14.8  14.1  18.4  25.3  22.1  18.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  45.0  50.0  44.0  36.0  32.0  29.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  33.0  59.0  45.0  53.0  64.0  44.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.9  18.6  14.8  14.1  18.4  25.3  22.1  18.8  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       11.4%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       29.7%       51.6%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       20.2%       36.1%       28.1%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%       36.1%       27.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       19.7%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       48.3%       35.8%
 55kt / 36h       14.8%       28.1%       21.5%
 55kt / 48h       19.5%       28.6%       24.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.0%       11.2%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       10.1%       10.8%