Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092019 190915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     77.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  13.8  14.1  21.1  26.1  22.6  19.2  29.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  44.0  47.0  48.0  39.0  33.0  31.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  42.0  44.0  49.0  59.0  43.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.5  13.8  14.1  21.1  26.1  22.6  19.2  29.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.6%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       19.3%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        7.6%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        7.6%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       13.5%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        4.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        9.2%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        1.9%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        2.9%        4.9%